
I did not pay for this photo of Tom Curley.
Associated Press President & CEO Tom Curley showed up at the Maryland/Delaware/DC Press Association Awards Conference outside Baltimore, MD yesterday to pitch the AP’s latest attempt to reign in the news aggregators – the News Licensing Group.
The idea behind this new startup is to raise $30 million from publishers; have publishers submit their content to a big, Internet-sniffing server array; and track down the news aggregators and other bandits who reprint their breaking news without permission. The idea is to extract licensing fees from republishers. Curley estimates the News Licensing Group could return $27 million in licensing fees to original publishers … by 2014, maybe.
The legal stick that AP plans to use to enforce this licensing regime is the so-called “hot news” doctrine, a 1918 Supreme Court decision that protects the commercial viability of breaking news from copying competitors. AP dusted off this case law in its lawsuit against All Headline News Corp. The NLG would have to whip that tort out a lot to stay in business.
I have a few predictions about how this will pan out:
A) If AP succeeds in accomplishing this dream, the Aols and Gawkers of the world will get their balls kicked in. Despite the pouting, defiant game being talked by the geniuses at Tech Crunch, they will get their teeth smashed in with a sledgehammer if they try to take on AP as a for-profit entity. AP is, for all intents and purposes, The News in North America. Even if bloggers don’t directly copy from AP feeds, they won’t be able to survive without copying news from AP’s customers. The for-profit bloggers will either fall in line or get ground under. The West Coast’s money-for-nothing, chicks-for-free era is over. Too many writers are getting laid off, and they aren’t going to feed their families off content farms.
B) If AP succeeds, their problem will merely morph to a new one. The music industry smashed Napster, only to have the headless, formless peer-to-peer monster reform and begin devouring profits again. Peer-to-peer news or even just anonymous, profitless blogs will fill the any void left by a chastened for-profit blogosphere. And it’s harder to sue someone who is reprinting news for no profit.
C) Not enough people are even reading news anymore, online or off, to make this whole fight anything more than two mangy cats fighting in the bottom of a trash can for scraps. Even if AP succeeds in policing the blogs and News Licensing Group becomes the iTunes of the industry, we are now two generations into a behavioral shift away from text-based, in-depth news. It’s all about the video, now. AP is not going to rescue the moribund print industry, even if it does rescue its dwindling profits.